December 2008- The first two weeks of December witnessed the convening of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Poznan, Poland. Nearly 4000 government representatives and 5500 observers and journalists participated in the meeting. Expectations for the meeting were not high, thanks to the global financial crisis, the lack of leadership from the US, and the weakening of earlier commitments by the EU. While some observers, mainly UN officials, argue that Poznan has set the stage for next year’s talks in Copenhagen, most of the major issues—mitigation targets and time-tables, funding for adaptation and technology transfer, and tropical deforestation—were pushed to Copenhagen.
Despite the lack of progress toward a comprehensive, post-Kyoto agreement, there was one promising development—the pledge by some major developing countries to reduce their carbon emissions—a shift from past positions. Brazil pledged to cut its annual deforestation rate by 70% by 2017, which could reduce the country’s carbon emissions by 30-45% over the next decade. Mexico would reduce its emissions by 50% from 2002 levels by 2050 and South Africa’s emissions would plateau between 2020 and 2025 and begin to decline between 2030 and 2035. Similarly, China will reduce its “energy intensity” by 20% by 2010 and India will boost solar energy production. These pledges are voluntary and their implementation is largely dependent on the extent of financial assistance and technology transfer by developed countries.
Whether this, and the agreement on structuring the (small) Adaptation Fund, will pave the way toward a new global treaty remains to be seen. The core questions—how much developed countries will reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, what will the rapidly industrializing countries like China ad India actually do to control their rapidly growing emissions, and how the poorer countries will be assisted in their adaptation efforts and in pursuing low-carbon development—remain untouched.
Many observers believe that the success of Copenhagen next year hinges on the new leadership in the US. President-Elect Obama has said that he wants to return to 1990 emission level by 2020. He also believes that a US energy strategy to tackle climate change would contribute to improving the economy, and has called for a $150 billion investment to create 5 million “green” jobs in the next 10 years.
Resolving the climate crisis which is affecting all countries, rich and poor, requires a comprehensive treaty which should include all countries, all sectors, all sources and sinks, and mitigation as well as adaptation. It should also be fair and equitable. Developed countries should take the lead in global emissions reduction given their historic responsibility and capacity to act. However, dangerous climate change cannot be avoided by developed countries acting alone. Even an 80% reduction of emissions in all developed countries by 2050 would not by itself achieve this objective. Meaningful engagement of developing countries, especially the rapidly industrializing economies, is needed also.
Addressing the climate challenge at the requisite level requires genuine international cooperation and trust between North and South. Above all, it requires leadership and political will.
